2011 NFL Predictions Week 7
The 2011 NFL season continues to shine as they enter their seventh week. Not only have seen skirmishes on the field between teams, but we learned NFL coaches, like the 49ers’ Jim Harbaugh and the Lions’ Jim Schwartz, are far from immune by the emotions on the field.
Here are the NFL Predictions for Week 7 including a few surprisingly close calls including better than average success by the road teams. Last week I managed a stronger performance with my picks, resulting in a 9 3 record and was able to maintain my pace in the NFL Pick’em contest.
The Broncos, fresh off their bye week, will Odell Beckham Jr Jersey usher in the Tim Tebow era as the Broncos travel to South Florida to take on the Dolphins, who are still recovering from their Monday night game with the New York Jets. Despite what the Bronco faithful think, Tebow is going to suffer some growing pains in this start as both team fight to change the course of their 2011 season. The Broncos will eventually come away with a narrow margin of victory on the road.
Broncos 17 Dolphins 14
Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans
The Texans, who are 1 2 on the road, will be looking to turn their fortunes around when they travel back to Tennessee and play against the Titans, who should be healthier after their bye week. The Texans will need to find a way to open the passing game to keep the Titans’ defense honest and give running back Arian Foster a chance. The game should be close but look for the Texans to right the ship.
Texans 28 Titans 21
Chicago Bears vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bears and Buccaneers are both riding the momentum of solid wins in Week 6 and will be eager to continue the trend. The Bears who are winless on the road are going to need to find a way to earn a win against a Bucs team that over took the New Orleans Saints last week. In order to do so, they will have to keep Bucs’ quarterback Josh Freeman under control and not have a similar line of 300 plus yards with 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions.
Bears 31 Buccaneers 28
Seattle Seahawks vs. Cleveland Browns
In the lackluster game of the week, the Seahawks will visit the Dawg pound to take on a struggling Browns team. Both teams have somehow combined for 2 Authentic Daniel Fells Jersey wins each. Each cellar dwelling team has lack any consistent playmakers . NFL fans can expect a few turnovers in this game along with Authentic Johnathan Hankins Jersey inept offenses. Something will have to give and eventually the Browns will come out on top as a winner.
Browns 20 Seahawks 17
San Diego Chargers vs. New York Jets
The Chargers are Shane Vereen Giants Jersey welcomed back from the bye week as they face on the desperate New York Jets who are trying to get themselves back into the playoff race. The Chargers will need to fight off the fatigue of traveling to the East coast. While their 4 1 record is impressive, they are going to have their hands full with the home crowd and the Jets who are going to be able to pull out a close win and continue their road back to playoff contention.
Jets 17 Chargers 14
Washington Redskins vs. Carolina Panthers
The Redskins faltered last week against the Philadelphia Eagles and will need to return to form if they want to make a serious run at the playoffs. Even though the Panthers are 1 5, the average NFL fan is excited to watch rookie quarterback Cam Newton take the field. The Redskins’ defense is better than Andre Williams Giants Jersey most and will give Newton Rueben Randle Giants Jersey all he can handle and then some. The Redskins will bounce back and earn a win on the road.
Redskins 24 Panthers 21
Atlanta Falcons vs. Detroit Lions
The Falcons will travel to the Motown with a 3 3 record and in need of a win to keep pace in the NFC South. They have had their troubles on the road, 1 2, especially where the performance of quarterback Matt Ryan is concerned. They will be taking on a fired up Lions team that suffered their first loss last week. The home crowd and the Lions will keep the edge in this contest as they bounce back and earn their sixth win of the season.
Lions 31 Falcons 28
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Arizona Cardinals
The Steelers and Cardinals will featured a rematch of Super Bowl XLIII though neither team is no where near at the same level. The Steelers will need to leave the friendly confines of their home field and travel out West to face a Cardinals offense that is average at best. The key to this game will be the Cardinals’ defense and their ability to force turnovers and turn them into points. The game will be close but in the end the Steelers’ will score just enough points.
Steelers 24 Cardinals 21
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Oakland Raiders
The Chiefs and Raiders will face off in one of the better rivalries in the AFC. The Chiefs will need to find a way to keep their passing game on target if they are going to find a way to earn a win. The Raiders will counter with a heavy dose of Darren McFadden who should have no problem finding open lanes once he gets past the trenches. The game should be entertaining no matter who is on the field, but the Raiders will be the one earning their fifth win of the season.
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The fake oakley sunglasses major question mark remaining is the breakup fee, if the deal is blocked by regulators. This issue is important to AT after it paid billions to T Mobile (NASDAQ:TMUS) when that deal was blocked. There is already another major TV merger in the workings, with Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSA) working to convince regulators to let it buy Time Warner Cable (NYSE:TWC). Timing this fake oakleys deal now minimizes the likelihood that regulators thwart AT yet again. Regulators would struggle to explain why they approved Comcast’s deal but blocked AT Regulators will need to either approve both deals fake ray bans or nix both, and at this point, regulatory approval is more likely than not. Once combined, AT and DirecTV will have roughly 25 million video subscribers, which is only 25% bigger than Comcast currently is today. It also would be smaller than the merged Comcast Time Warner. While bigger, AT would not be a monopoly; it would not even be the biggest pay TV service, nor would it control a monopoly in any major market. After all, the cheap oakley sunglasses new AT will still face competition from traditional cable providers. This proposed merger, while likely to draw scrutiny, is unlikely to be blocked.
However, I continue to believe AT shareholders would probably be better off if regulators blocked the deal. In January of this year, DirecTV was trading below $70, and AT bid is likely to be in fake oakleys outlet the $95 $100 range, according to reports. This represents a roughly 40% premium. Simply put, AT is paying far too much on a standalone basis. In this price range, DirecTV will be worth around $50 billion, and AT will assume its $16 billion of net debt (DirecTV’s financial and operating data are available here). That makes the enterprise value of this deal wholesale nfl jerseys $66 billion.
While strong, DirecTV’s operating results simply do not justify this price tag. In 2013, DTV generated around $2.6 billion in free cash flow. At $100, DTV is trading 20x free cash flow, and the company is being valued at 33x free cash flow when including its debt. At $100, DTV is also being valued at over 17x 2014 earnings. To make this deal accretive, DirecTV will need to grow dramatically. Unfortunately, I think growth expectations are far too high.
First, DirecTV has a significant business in Latin America; however, much of the Latin American economy is facing problems amid emerging market Cheap Michael kors Store turmoil. We are also seeing devaluations in various countries like Argentina and Venezuela, and currency will continue to be a headwind. While Latin America has solid long term fundamentals, cheap replica oakleys it will likely be a rough 24 months. Also, in the United States, DirecTV has expanded its customer base by offering exclusive content, namely the NFL Sunday Ticket. The NFL has seen consistently strong ratings and is arguably more popular than ever. The current contract expires at the end of this year, and negotiations are still ongoing. At the very least, a new deal will be more costly, which will pressure margins. At the worst, another provider could win NFL Sunday Ticket, which would seriously pressure revenue and profitability. This renewal could mildly cut earnings, while a failure to renew could seriously weaken results.
At the same time, it is important to note that AT will pay for a portion of this deal in stock. In essence, AT is trading its shares for DirecTV shares, which is an unfavorable trade. While DTV is 20x free cash flow and 17x earnings, AT is less than 15x earnings and 17x free cash flow. AT fake oakleys is paying up for DTV, while offering its stock at a comparatively cheap price. Using cheap jerseys stock will make this deal even more dilutive and will drag on EPS in the coming two years. AT currently carries $76 billion in net debt, so it will need to fund some of the $50 billion with stock (AT financial and operating data available here). Issuing equity will only worsen the fact that AT is overpaying for DirecTV’s operations.
This deal will also focus the business away from wireless, where AT growth is. It also provides a strategic headache in markets where AT offers U verse TV. AT has spent billions building U verse into a viable business, and it is finally succeeding on this front, with U verse growing revenue 29% fake oakleys outlet to an annual rate of $14 billion last quarter. Once this deal is completed, though, AT will be competing with itself in some markets, offering both U verse and DirecTV. Competing with itself makes little sense, so this deal will effectively force the cheap fake ray bans company to cease offering U verse TV, wasting the billions spent to build the service. Buying DirecTV now that its own TV service is gaining traction causes more problems than fake oakleys outlet it solves. On the positive side, AT could bundle DirecTV with its wireless offerings to combat competitive pressures from Sprint (NYSE:S), Verizon (NYSE:VZ), and T Mobile. However, it would be far fake oakleys outlet cheaper to simply enter strategic partnerships with cable providers and agree to a revenue sharing scheme. This would make far more financial sense than paying 20x free cash flow for DirecTV.
On the whole, AT is overpaying for DirecTV. At $95 $100, DTV is trading at a significant premium to AT and there are risks to its growth story. This deal also makes minimal strategic sense, and a partnership would make more sense than an outright acquisition. AT should focus on growing its wireless unit and returning cash to shareholders. DirecTV will not contribute to these efforts, and at the current price, is unlikely to be accretive. DirecTV shareholders are definitely getting the better end of this deal, and I would be a seller of AT on this news. After this deal, investors would be better off owning VZ.
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
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